India and US find themselves facing each other at a fascinating inflection point. Washington is confronting realities that many in US preferred to postpone. Trump has had a distinctly underwhelming summit with Xi in Beijing. There was little meaningful concession from the Chinese, but there was a sobering acknowledgement in Washington that US is dealing with a genuine peer competitor. US finds itself without the leverage it needs to compel China to play by some rules. Instead, China has gamed globalisation on its own terms. The appeal of “sasta-and-sundar” Chinese products concealed a more uncomfortable reality: of weaponised supply chains and strategic dependencies.
Trump faces a similar strategic dilemma in Iran to the one Nixon and Kissinger confronted in Vietnam in the early 1970s. In a prescient essay in Foreign Affairs, Gideon Rose argues that “Like the fate of South Vietnam, the ultimate fate of the Iranian nuclear programme, along with that of the Iranian regime itself, will end up being decided another day.” The Trump administration is relearning a lesson that great powers periodically forget: wars are often won or lost not by the ability to inflict pain, but by the capacity to absorb it. Military superiority matters, but endurance matters more.
Third, US is finding itself with fewer friends. Pakistan remains a familiar tactical partner. Others continue to engage Washington selectively. Yet the broader sense of confidence in American leadership has eroded. It may also explain why PM Modi may not be considering a trip to the White House anytime soon, notwithstanding Rubio’s invite.
US is revisiting a recurring theme in its history: the temptation of splendid isolation. It wants greater protection at home and fewer burdens abroad. Trump is not an aberration so much as a product of these domestic pressures and voter preferences. Yet, recent strategic setbacks suggest that isolation may be harder to achieve than many Americans imagine. A country cannot easily detach itself from the world when it remains deeply dependent on its principal adversary for manufacturing capacity, critical inputs, and supply chains. A strategic rethink in Washington may, therefore, be inevitable.
For India, these developments offer both cautionary lessons and opportunities. Resilience is not built overnight. It’s embedded in industrial systems, and baked into economic, technological, and regulatory policies. India is learning this lesson in real time.
At the bilateral level, the investments that India and US have made in each other over decades cannot disappear overnight. US remains one of the largest sources of FDI into India. American capital, technology, and higher education continue to matter enormously. Indian companies still see US as their most important market, and a crucial source of validation for innovation. None of this is likely to change.
What India needs instead is a sophisticated “plus one” strategy. Japan and India are already moving in that direction. Australia is also seeking reliable partners. This is why Quad remains vital for India. It’s not in India’s interests to allow the ‘Indo-Pacific’ to slide back into the narrower ‘Asia-Pacific’ framework. Such an outcome would hand China a significant strategic victory.
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